Who Will Qualify for IPL 2023's Play-Offs? | All Scenarios Explained

image-lhrhl3fsLSG's win over MI has left the points table wide open (IPLT20.com)

In a breathless race towards the climax of the group stage, the Indian Premier League (IPL) 2023 points table has transformed into a captivating spectacle, fuelling an intense battle among seven teams vying for the coveted three remaining spots in the playoffs.

While the Gujarat Titans have effortlessly secured their berth and cemented a top-two finish, the dreams of the Delhi Capitals and Sunrisers Hyderabad have been shattered, leaving them eliminated from the fiercely contested tournament.

Now, the battlefield is set ablaze with the Chennai Super Kings, Lucknow Super Giants, Mumbai Indians, Royal Challengers Bangalore, Punjab Kings, Rajasthan Royals, and Kolkata Knight Riders engaging in a high-stakes skirmish. Each team finds themselves in a unique position, with some wielding control over their destiny, while others must conquer their adversaries and desperately rely on fortuitous outcomes elsewhere.


As the IPL 2023's league matches approach their climactic conclusion, we at OneCricket are dissecting the playoffs qualification scenarios for all these teams.


Chennai Super Kings

Played 13, Won – 7, Lost – 4, No Result – 1, Points - 15, NRR - 0.381

MI’s loss against LSG has significantly enhanced the prospects of CSK securing a top-two finish in the IPL standings. If both CSK and LSG emerge victorious in their final encounters, the decider will rest upon the intricate calculations of run rates to determine the deserving occupant of the second position. A 10-run triumph by the CSK in their upcoming match would impose an imposing challenge upon the Super Giants, who would need to secure a victory by a staggering margin of approximately 29 runs in order to surpass their rivals in net run rate. However, a defeat at the hands of the Capitals could spell their untimely elimination, given the presence of five other teams capable of accumulating more than 15 points.


Lucknow Super Giants

Played - 13, Won – 7, Lost – 5, No Result – 1, Points - 15, NRR – 0.304

LSG have kept their aspirations of securing a top-two finish tantalizingly alive with a thrilling five-run victory over Mumbai. Their aim of a top-two finish depends upon a victory against KKR in their final away match and a defeat for CSK vs DC. However, should both LSG and CSK end with 17 points, the margins of victory will become the decisive factor, with net run rates coming into play. However, a loss in their last game could plunge the Super Giants into a precarious situation because of the presence of five other teams who are capable of reaching 16 or more points. To secure a playoff berth with 15 points, the Super Giants must fervently hope that at least two of these teams fail to surpass the 16-point mark.


Mumbai Indians

Played - 13, Won – 7, Lost 6, Points – 14, NRR - -0.128

Following their defeat in Lucknow, Mumbai now find themselves relying on external outcomes, even if they emerge triumphant in their forthcoming clash against SRH as two teams possess the potential to accumulate more than Mumbai's maximum of 16 points, while both the RCB and PBKS Kings could also reach the 16-point mark. The Bangalore-based franchise currently boasts a superior net run rate (NRR) of 0.166, which is likely to further improve if they secure victories in their remaining two matches, compared to the MI’s NRR of -0.128.

However, a glimmer of hope emerges for Mumbai should any of the quartets comprising RCB, LSG, PBKS, and CSK falter in their upcoming fixtures. In such a scenario, Mumbai's prospects surge considerably. Furthermore, the advantage of playing their final league stage match on the last day, against a struggling SRH within the comforting confines of their home ground, works in their favour. Nevertheless, if Rohit Sharma’s men were to stumble in their last encounter, the situation becomes increasingly complex, as five teams could potentially conclude the league stage with 14 points, vying for a solitary qualifying slot.


Royal Challengers Bangalore

Played - 12, Won – 6, Lost – 6, Points – 12, NRR – 0.166

RCB find themselves in a favourable position with their superior net run rate compared to the other teams in the race to reach 16 points after their massive 112 runs win over Rajasthan. However, to capitalize on this advantage, Faf du Plessis’ troops must secure victories in both their remaining games to bolster their chances of qualification. They need to travel to Hyderabad and beat SRH before they play the Titans at home. However, if they lose one of these two games, they will have to be contingent on other results to favour them.


Rajasthan Royals

Played - 13, Won – 6, Lost – 7, Points – 12, NRR – 0.140

RR face a challenging road to qualification, as their maximum achievable points stand at 14, requiring a series of fortuitous outcomes to fall into place. In order to do so, they will have to first defeat PBKS in their final league game of the season. Notably, among the five teams vying for 14 points, the Royals possess the second-best net run rate (NRR) of 0.140, surpassed only by the RCB, despite enduring a massive defeat at their hands. This implies that if everything goes their way, the Royals could still harbour a glimmer of hope for qualification.


Kolkata Knight Riders

Played – 13, Won – 6, Lost – 7, Points – 13, NRR - -0.256

KKR will be facing slim odds, with a minuscule chance of qualifying for the playoff. Their best chance relies on several specific outcomes. Firstly, they must secure a resounding victory in their last game against LSG by a huge margin. Simultaneously, they would require the RR, RCB and MI to lose their remaining matches. If these stars align perfectly, a three-way tie at 14 points would ensue, involving KKR, PBKS and MI. An intriguing aspect of this scenario is that all three teams currently possess negative net run rates (NRR). However, the KKR then would have a realistic chance of surpassing the NRRs of PBKS and MI if they beat LSG by a massive margin.


Punjab Kings

Played – 12, Won – 6, Lost – 6, Points – 12, NRR - -0.268

PBKS face an uphill battle in their pursuit of the fourth spot with 14 points, primarily due to their poor net run rate (NRR) which is why they need to win their remaining two games comprehensively, totalling 16 points. Even then, they would need other results to work in their favor, given that RCB also possess an equal number of points but boast a significantly superior run rate. Firstly, the Kings must begin with a resounding victory against the bottom-placed Delhi Capitals in their upcoming clash and they need to defeat RR to ensure they reach 16 points.