Where Will Ravichandran Ashwin Finish In The List Of Top Test Wicket Takers?

Ravichandran Ashwin [X]Ravichandran Ashwin [X]

India defeated Bangladesh by 280 runs in the first Test of the two match-series at the MA Chidambaram Stadium in Chennai. The prime architect for India was the veteran all-rounder Ravichandran Ashwin, who not only scored a Hundred in the first innings under pressure but also picked up six wickets in the second innings of the game. 

During his stellar performance in the second innings, Ravichandran Ashwin went past the West Indian legend, Courtney Walsh in the top wicket-takers list in Test cricket. Ashwin now has 522 wickets under his belt and occupies the eighth spot in the list. 

Aged 38 years, a question might come in mind of cricket fan - Will Ashwin go past Anil Kumble and become the highest wicket taker for India in Test cricket? Where will Ashwin finish in the list of top wicket takers in Test when he retires?

Let us try and analyse his wicket taking pattern and predict the number of wickets, Ashwin might finish with at the end of his career. 

Ravichandran Ashwin's wicket taking pattern Test cricket

His strike rate or frequency of taking wickets in Test cricket, looks somewhat like this - 

Years
Matches
Innings
Wickets
Wickets/Innings
2011-201423371143
2015 - 201947892482.78
2020-202431601572.61

If we the number of wicket he has picked up each innings, then we see that there was been a graudual decrease in the value. Even though the dip has been in decimals, there has been a decrease. 

So, considering that his efficiency decreases further let us predict how many wickets he will finish with when he retires. 

If Ashwin retires after WTC 2023-25 Cycle

If Ravichandran Ashwin decides to hang up his boots after the 2023-2025 Test cycle, then he will ge to play 14 more Tests. So, keeping in mind the decreasing efficiency with the ball, here is what we get - 

Minimum Matches
Highest Possible Innings
Estimated Wickets Per Innings
Most Possible Wickets
14282.570

So, if these conditions hold true, then by the end of this WTC cycle, Ashwin will have 70 more wickets under his belt. Thus, the Indian spinner will have (522+70=) 592 wickets at the end of his carrier. This will mean that he will be sixth in the least of all time highest wicket-takers in Test cricket and for India, he will stay at number two. 

If Ashwin elongates his carrier for one more WTC cycle

If Ashwin plays for one more Test cycle and retires nearly at the age of 42, then he might play 25 more matches (considering the schedule in the last two WTC cycles). So, if he retires in 2025, his carrier might look like this - 

Minimum Matches
Highest Possible Innings
Estimated Wickets Per Innings
Most Possible Wickets
25502.3115

So, considering that his efficiency goes downn further, Ashwin might have 115 wickets more by the end of the 2025-27 WTC cycle. Therefore, during retirement Ashwin will have (522+70+115=) 707 wickets. He will be third in the world behind Shane Warne (708) in this case and also the highest wicket taker for India in Test cricket. 

Conclusion

This is just a prediction and it is based on the trend of his depreciation in the nunber of wickets at different phases of his carrier. Ashwin is a great bowler and there is every chance that his efficiency might increase. Also, if he plays more home Tests during the 2025-27 cycle, the number he ends with might vary by a big margin. However, this is just a statistical prediction considering performance graph previously.