How Can Pakistan Qualify For Champions Trophy 2025 Semifinal After Losing Vs New Zealand?

Pakistan lost their first match vs NZ [Source: @TheRealPCB/X]

Pakistan had a disastrous start to the ICC Champions Trophy, as they lost their opening match against New Zealand by 60 runs. Batting first, New Zealand posted a massive total of 320 runs. In response, Pakistan were bundled out for 260 runs, losing the game by a convincing margin. 

Pakistan will now take on India and Bangladesh in their upcoming encounters. They must win these two games in first place in order to make their case strong for a semifinal qualification. 

So, as they gear up for two crucial matches, here's our analysis explaining how Pakistan can get a sure-shot semifinal entry in the Champions Trophy without depending on the Net Run Rate (NRR). 

How Can Pakistan Enter Champions Trophy Semifinal?

For Pakistan to get a sure-shot entry into the Champions Trophy semifinal, at most one team, apart from the Men in Green, should win two or more matches in group A so that their NRR doesn't get into consideration. They should win their two matches, which will result in one defeat for India and Bangladesh. 

Case 1: If India beat Bangladesh and Pakistan win both their matches

As shown in the table above, if India win against Bangladesh tomorrow and Pakistan emerge victorious in their two games, the latter must hope for New Zealand to either win or lose both their remaining matches; so that their qualification doesn't get affected. 

On the other hand, if New Zealand defeat Bangladesh but lose to India, Pakistan's semifinal qualification won't be guaranteed, as it will ultimately come down to the NRRs of India and New Zealand. 

• Final Result for first suitable combination: PAK- 2, IND- 2, NZ-1, BAN-1
• Final Result for second suitable combination: PAK- 2, IND- 1, NZ-3, BAN-0
• Final Result for unsuitable combination: PAK- 2, IND-2, NZ-2, BAN-0

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Case 2: If Bangladesh beat India and Pakistan win their 2 matches

On a similar note, if Bangladesh manage to defeat India, and Pakistan secure victories in their remaining matches, they must hope for the BlackCaps to either win or lose both their matches. However, if the Kiwis lose to Bangladesh but win against India, Pakistan's qualification will be determined by their NRR as compared to the same of the rest two teams. 

• Final Result for first suitable combination: PAK-2, BAN-2, IND-1, NZ-1
• Final Result for second suitable combination: PAK-2, NZ-3, BAN-1, IND-0
• Final Result for unsuitable combination: PAK-2, BAN-2, NZ-2, IND-0

It's worth mentioning that Pakistan can't get their semifinal berth confirmed if they lose at least one of their remaining games. In that case, they can only hope for two of the other three teams to finish the group stage with one win, so that they can qualify based on a superior NRR. 

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