Women’s ODI World Cup 2025: Team-wise qualification scenarios for semifinals explained

Women's World Cup 2025 [Source: ICC/X]

After England defeated India in Indore, three teams, England, Australia, and South Africa, have now booked their places in the semifinals. England’s win was important because it guaranteed their spot while pushing India into a difficult position. 

Sunday’s match was intense. India seemed to be on course for victory, needing 55 runs from 53 balls, but England’s bowlers kept taking key wickets, putting pressure on the hosts. Smriti Mandhana scored 88 and Harmanpreet Kaur added 70, but wickets fell at critical moments. India finished 284/6, falling just four runs short of England’s 288/8, with Heather Knight scoring a commanding 109 for England. 

This close loss has left India in a precarious position as they fight for the last semifinal spot.

Current Points table after IND vs ENG match :

Teams still in race for final semifinal spots

Notably, six teams will be competing for the one remaining semifinal place: India, New Zealand, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan, as shown in table. Each team’s chances depend not only on their own matches but also on how other teams perform.

The remaining matches are critical, and some teams are in “must-win” situations. For instance, India’s upcoming game against New Zealand is almost like a knockout match. Losing there could significantly reduce their chances of qualifying. Winning only one game may not be enough; India would need favourable results from other teams and a strong net run rate to advance.

India’s semifinal scenarios

India can secure a semifinal spot by winning both of their remaining matches against New Zealand and Bangladesh. 

• This would give them eight points from seven matches, which is likely enough to guarantee advancement regardless of other results. The first priority is the match against New Zealand, which is important and could decide their fate.
• If India win only one of these games, the situation becomes more complex. They would then need other results to go their way, such as New Zealand losing to England. They may also have to chase a higher net run rate, which means winning matches by large margins.

New Zealand’s semifinal scenarios

New Zealand have won just one of their five matches and currently have four points with a net run rate of -0.245. 

• Their match against India is a must-win. If they win both their remaining games, including one against England, they will qualify for the semifinals.
• However, if New Zealand beat India but lose to England, they must rely on Bangladesh defeating India and hope for washouts (no result) in some other matches to stay in contention. Even a washed-out match against India could be helpful, but only if India and other teams do not get enough points. 

It is imporant to mention that their semifinal hopes are therefore dependent on multiple outcomes in addition to their own performances.

Bangladesh’s semifinal scenarios

Nigar Sultana's Bangladesh have won only one match out of five and has two points with a net run rate of -0.676. 

• They still have a slim chance to reach the semifinals, but it requires winning both remaining matches against Sri Lanka and India. They also need England to defeat New Zealand to keep their hopes alive.
• If both India and New Zealand finish on six points, Bangladesh must not only win but do so convincingly to improve their net run rate. 

This makes their challenge extremely tough, but mathematically, they are still in contention. 

Sri Lanka and Pakistan’s Semifinal Scenario

Talking about Sri Lanka, the side have not won a single match yet, and Pakistan have also struggled. Both teams remain in the race, but their chances are extremely slim. 

• Sri Lanka must win their remaining matches against Pakistan and Bangladesh, hope India loses both matches, and depend on England defeating New Zealand. They would also need to win by big margins to improve their net run rate enough to surpass New Zealand.
• Pakistan face a similar uphill battle. They must beat South Africa and Sri Lanka in their final matches and win by a large margin to improve their net run rate. Only then could they sneak into the semifinals. 

For both teams, the path is mathematically possible but would require a series of unlikely outcomes.

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