PBKS vs RCB: Who Will Win Today's Qualifier 1 IPL Match?

Probuddha Bhattacharjee

PBKS vs RCB, IPL 2025: Winner Prediction for Qualifer 1 [Source: AP Photos]PBKS vs RCB, IPL 2025: Winner Prediction for Qualifer 1 [Source: AP Photos]

The IPL 2025 playoffs begin with the clash of the table-toppers, Punjab Kings and Royal Challengers Bengaluru in Qualifier 1. After a decade-long wait, PBKS return to the knockout stage, while RCB chase their elusive maiden title. With a direct route to the final at stake, both teams face their biggest test of the season at the Maharaja Yadavinra Singh International Cricket Stadium.

IPL 2025 Qualifier 1 Match Information

Date: May 29, 2025 | Time: 7:30 PM IST | Venue: Maharaja Yadavindra Singh International Cricket Stadium, Mullanpur

PBKS vs RCB Qualifier 1 Toss Prediction

At Mullanpur this season, teams batting first have won 3 out of 4 matches. The venue has produced contrasting matches. While we have seen 420 runs scored in the game between the Punjab Kings and the Chennai Super Kings, we have also seen 111 being defended by PBKS against KKR at this venue. 

The captain winning the toss might look to field first.

Strategic Advantage: Home team's venue familiarity vs RCB's perfect away record.

IPL 2025 Qualifier 1 Momentum Shifters

Game-Changing Moment
Impact Threshold
Win Probability Shift
Kohli's Playoff Masterclass60+ runs in high-pressure chase+45% RCB advantage
Shreyas Iyer's Captain's Knock50+ runs while setting target+40% PBKS boost
Chahal's Spin Web3+ wickets in middle overs+42% Surge in PBKS chances
Death Overs Explosion25+ runs in final 3 overs+38% batting team edge
Early Wicket Cluster3+ wickets in powerplay+35% bowling team control

Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Punjab Kings Live Match Factors

Toss Impact Analysis

  • RCB win toss, bat first: +18% win probability (suits their batting depth)
  • PBKS win toss, field first: +12% advantage (home conditions knowledge)
  • Evening dew factor: Favors chasing by +15%

In-Game Momentum Shifts

  • After 10 overs: Team with 90+ runs becomes 70% favorite
  • Middle overs (7-15): If run rate drops below 7.5 while chasing, defending team gains +25%
  • Death overs entry: Target above 175 gives first batting team 65% edge
  • Final 3 overs: 18+ runs per over needed swings to bowling team  by75%

PBKS vs RCB Multi-Scenario Predictions

Most Likely Scenario (65%): PBKS Home Victory

Match Margin: Punjab Kings win by 15-20 runs or 3-4 wickets

Dark Horse Scenario (25%): RCB Away Magic

Match Margin: Royal Challengers Bengaluru win by 4-6 wickets or 10-15 runs

Upset Special (10%): Low-Scoring Thriller

Match Margin: Either team wins by under 10 runs or 2 wickets

IPL 2025 Playoffs Qualifier 1 Winner Prediction

PBKS vs RCB, Win Probability Prediction [Source: OneCricket]PBKS vs RCB, Win Probability Prediction [Source: OneCricket]

Why PBKS Edge Ahead - 

  • Familiar Mullanpur conditions
  • Shreyas Iyer's championship experience from KKR in 2024
  • Chahal's spin variations effective in evening conditions
  • 3/4 batting first success rate suits their approach

RCB's Challenge:

Perfect away record provides confidence, but PBKS' home crowd support create tough environment for visitors.

PBKS vs RCB OneCricket's Qualifier 1 Prediction

Punjab Kings advance to IPL 2025 Final

We can expect a competitive 175 plus run chase where home advantage proves decisive in PBKS's first final qualification since 2014.