Have India missed the flight to the WTC 2027 final? Qualification scenarios explained

India has won 4/9 Tests in this WTC Cycle [Source- AFP Photos]

India's fresh World Test Championship cycle for 2025-27 saw the change of the guard, as Shubman Gill took over the captaincy from Rohit Sharma, after they missed out on the WTC final for the first time. The idea was to build for the future and potentially bounce back and reach another final at the end of the cycle.

In Kolkata, captain Gill also famously said that he would win the most important toss when it is the WTC final, but does India still stand a chance of reaching Lord's in 2027? Let's have a look.

Torrid start to the WTC cycle

With a young side at Gill's disposal, the spirits were high after they showed great fight throughout the England series. However, losing out on close matches like the Lord's Test and failing to capitalise on some key moments, where they could have blown away the opposition, meant India needed to settle for a 2-2 series tie.

Still, a strong showing from Gill and co. meant some questionable decisions, like the non-selection of Arshdeep Singh and Kuldeep Yadav throughout the five-match series, went under the radar.

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The saga of chopping and changing, tinkering with team combinations, not picking specialists for certain roles, continued in the home season against South Africa, which eventually backfired and India suffered another whitewash at home in consecutive years.

Additionally, India's well-known weakness against spin was once again under the scanner against Simon Harmer, who wreaked havoc in both Tests.

At the halfway mark in their WTC cycle, India have won 4, lost 4 and drawn 1 and sit 5th on the points table with 48.15% points.

Tough road ahead

Up next, India are set to face Sri Lanka away (2 Tests), New Zealand away (2 Tests), and Australia at home (5 Tests).

Sri Lanka tour

India's next series is set to commence in August 2026, when they tour Sri Lanka, where they will once again face a stern test against fierce spin bowling, with the likes of Prabath Jayasuriya, Ramesh Mendis and Lasith Embuldeniya looking to make the best use of their home conditions.

Here's a breakdown of how spinners and pacers have performed in Sri Lanka since January 2021:

(Pacers vs Spinners in Sri Lanka since January 2021)

The above data clearly shows that it will be a challenging task for India to bat in the Sri Lankan conditions. With the vulnerability vs spin known to the world, the hosts will surely be giving India turners to bat on, especially at Galle, where spinners average even less (32.51) for every wicket and have picked 79.15% of the total wickets in this period.

New Zealand tour

For years, India has struggled to get results in their favour when it comes to touring New Zealand. Since 1968, they have only won 5 Tests away against the Blackcaps, 3 of which came during the 1968 tour.

Notably, they have been whitewashed twice in their last two back-to-back tours of NZ, and have only managed a single win since the turn of the millennium, which was in Hamilton, 2009.

In contrast to the English batter-friendly wickets, the Kiwis, as usual, will prepare green tracks, where the ball will seam and swing, bringing the likes of Matt Henry and Will O'Rourke in play, who even troubled India in the slightly helpful Bengaluru wicket in 2024.

Additionally, India's lack of quality new ball pacers will once again come into play here, unless they find some immediate solution to the situation, which, at the moment, looks highly unlikely.

Australia tour of India

Once again, the Border-Gavaskar Trophy will not be a cakewalk for India. The Aussies will come prepared with the likes of Nathan Lyon, Todd Murphy and Matthew Kuhnemann in the mix.

Kuhnemann and Lyon had recently also dismantled the Sri Lankans away from home, picking 16 and 14 wickets, respectively, averaging 17.18 and 22.50. Todd Murphy, on the other hand, did not bowl much but has previously picked a five-fer in Nagpur during the BGT 2023.

India will have a huge question for India, whether to provide turners or flat wickets, considering Australia are a well-equipped unit and the battles between the teams in recent years have been cutthroat.

Conclusion

The last two BGTs in India have both ended in a 2-1 India win, while a match in each series was drawn. A similar is expected in the 2027 series, leaving India's expectations to the Sri Lanka and New Zealand tours, which will be a tough ask.

As things stand, it looks like a genuine uphill task for India, considering they will have to win a majority of the remaining 9 Tests.

Unless they find solutions to the woes against spin and add a quality new ball pacer to the attack, they will have to wait for 2029 to play another WTC final.

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