Pakistan are leading the series 1-0 [Source: @OfficialSLC/x.com]
Sunday evening in Dambulla promises a proper crunch game as Pakistan lock horns with Sri Lanka in the third and final T20I of the series. With the SL vs PAK 2nd T20I washed out and Pakistan drawing first blood in the opener, this clash feels like a mini final before the T20 World Cup circus rolls into town.
The Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium will host the decider and both sides will be keen to tick the last few boxes before flying out for the global event.
The second T20I never really got going thanks to rain, which meant Pakistan’s six-wicket win in the series opener still holds all the weight. Led smartly by Agha Salman, Pakistan bundled Sri Lanka out for 128 and chased it down without breaking a sweat. With the T20 World Cup around the corner, they would want to seal the series.
Meanwhile, Sri Lanka will feel they were outplayed in the first game. Batters went missing, bowlers leaked runs, and the overall effort fell flat. Under Dasun Shanaka, the hosts will be desperate to level the series and avoid going into the World Cup with dented confidence.
PAK vs SL current form (last 5 T20Is)
Teams
Form
Pakistan
W, L, W, W, A
Sri Lanka
W, W, L, L, A
PAK vs SL: Key Player Battles
Pathum Nissanka vs Mohammad Wasim
Criterion
Data
Balls
15
Runs
11
Outs
1
Strike rate
73.3
(Pathum Nissanka vs Mohammad Wasim in T20Is)
This battle could quietly decide the tone of the innings. Pathum Nissanka has found Mohammad Wasim a tough nut to crack. In 15 balls in T20Is, he has managed just 11 runs, played seven dot balls and lost his wicket once in the first T20I. Nissanka will want to break free early while Wasim will fancy his chances again.
This face-off has fireworks written all over it. Saim Ayub has generally bossed Maheesh Theekshana in T20Is, scoring 50 runs at a strike rate north of 150. But it was Theekshana who had the last laugh in the first game. Expect Ayub to come hard, and Theekshana to keep his variations tight.
Fakhar Zaman vs Dushmantha Chameera
Criterion
Data
Balls
14
Runs
9
Outs
1
Strike rate
64.3
(Fakhar Zaman vs Dushmantha Chameera in T20Is)
This has been a one-sided contest so far. Fakhar Zaman has struggled against Dushmantha Chameera, scoring just nine runs off 14 balls with ten dots and one dismissal. Fakhar will be itching to change these numbers.
PAK vs SL top performers
Most runs for PAK vs SL in T20Is (current players)
Sahibzada Farhan: 187 runs in 5 matches
Saim Ayub: 109 runs in 5 matches
Most wickets for PAK Vs SL in T20Is (current players)
Abrar Ahmed: 9 wickets in 5 matches
Faheem Ashraf: 7 wickets in 9 matches
Most runs for SL Vs PAK in T20Is (current players)
Dasun Shanaka: 172 runs in 15 matches
Kusal Perera: 169 runs in 8 matches
Most wickets for SL Vs PAK in T20Is (current players)
Wanindu Hasaranga: 19 wickets in 10 matches
Dushmantha Chameera: 8 wickets in 6 matches
PAK vs SL toss prediction
The Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium pitch is expected to be on the slower side once again. The new ball might do a bit early but batting becomes easier as the game wears on. Change of pace will also be key on this surface, With chasing teams winning three of the last five T20Is here, the skipper winning the toss is likely to bowl first and keep things simple.
PAK vs SL 1st innings score prediction
Powerplay: 39/1
Final score: 143/8
PAK vs SL 2nd innings score prediction
Powerplay: 44/1
Final score: 144/5
PAK vs SL top players prediction
Pakistan's top players prediction
Saim Ayub, Shadab Khan, Salman Mirz
Sri Lanka's top players prediction
Pathum Nissanka, Wanindu Hasaranga, Dhananjaya de Silva
Who will hit the most sixes in SL Vs PAK 3rd T20I?
Saim Ayub
Who will hit the most fours in SL Vs PAK 3rd T20I?
Pathum Nissanka
PAK vs SL Match Winner Prediction: Who will win the 3rd T20I?
Sri Lanka will bank on home conditions but Pakistan still hold the clearer edge. Their bowling suits Dambulla perfectly with cutters, pace-off options and wrist spin giving them control on slower surfaces. They showed that blueprint in the first T20I by restricting Sri Lanka to a modest total and finishing the chase without panic.
Sri Lanka remain heavily dependent on their top order. If Nissanka or Kusal Mendis fail, the innings can lose shape quickly. Add Pakistan’s favourable match-ups and recent form into the mix and they look better equipped to win the key moments. If it turns into a 140–150 game, Pakistan should have enough control and balance to close out the series in Dambulla.