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WTC Final Race: How Can Sri Lanka Knock India And Australia Out To Enter The Final?

Bhargav Dixit∙ Updated: Dec 29 2024, 8:58 PM

Sri Lanka are slated to host Australia next year. [Source: @OfficialSLC/X]Sri Lanka are slated to host Australia next year. [Source: @OfficialSLC/X]

That everyone looks high and low for calculators right after the completion of a match is the biggest accomplishment of ICC World Test Championship. Currently into its third edition, only four results remain to determine the second finalist.

The culmination of the first South Africa-Pakistan Test match in Centurion has powered South Africa to the final for the first time in three WTC editions. The development means that Australia, India and Sri Lanka are left to cross swords for the second spot.

On paper, the chances of qualification of these three teams lie in the exact same order of their mention in the above paragraph. In spite of lacking behind at the moment, Sri Lanka could still face South Africa at Lord’s in June next year.

Can Sri Lanka Qualify for WTC Final?

Mathematically, yes. Currently placed fifth on the points table with 45.45 percent points to their name, Sri Lanka can reach a maximum of 53.85 assuming they whitewash Australia 2-0 at home.

For context, all five Sri Lankan Test wins over the Aussies have come in their own conditions. While the last Test series between these two teams in Sri Lanka had resulted in a 1-1 draw, the one before it had seen Sri Lanka whitewashing Australia 3-0. Thus, it’s something they’ve done in the past.

Having said that, it won’t be enough. To thump Australia in the larger picture, Sri Lanka require two results in their favour. With the fate of the Australia-India Melbourne and Sydney Tests yet to be decided, Sri Lanka will only be able to qualify if both the matches result in a draw or Australia win one and the other one gets drawn. Even one Indian victory will play spoilsport for Sri Lanka.

While only time will tell with respect to the Sydney Test, India will have to break almost a century-old record to win the Melbourne Test tomorrow.

With the home team currently leading by 333 runs, the visitors will have to pull-off the highest successful Test run-chase at the MCG to take a 2-1 lead in a five-match series. It is to be noted that a 300+ target has been achieved only once in Melbourne in the past.