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Australia Still Not Confirmed For WTC 2025 Final? All Scenarios Explained 

Sakshi Sharma

Pat Cummins with the BGT trophy (Source:AP)Pat Cummins with the BGT trophy (Source:AP)

Australia has already solidified their dominance in the World Test Championship (WTC) cycle with a commanding 3-1 series victory over India in the recently concluded BGT. With this win Australia assured their place in the WTC final for the second consecutive time. However, a far-fetched scenario could still derail their qualification hopes.  

South Africa had earlier secured their WTC final berth with a dramatic two-wicket win over Pakistan during the Boxing Day Test at Centurion. Meanwhile, Australia’s strong position at the top of the WTC standings with a points percentage (PCT) of 63.73 leaves them well ahead of the competition. So, in this article, let's take a look at how can Australia still lose its place in the WTC final?

How Australia Can Still Miss Spot In WTC Final? 

Despite Australia’s commanding lead, their place in the WTC final is not entirely beyond jeopardy. The only scenario in which Australia could lose their berth involves penalty points for a slow over rate. 

If Australia incurs an eight-point deduction across the two remaining matches against Sri Lanka and the hosts sweep the series 2-0, Sri Lanka would edge past with a PCT of 53.84 to Australia’s 53.52.  

While such a scenario is unlikely, there is historical precedent. During the 2023 Ashes series, Australia were docked 10 points for slow over rates in the fourth Test, while England faced a record 19-point penalty across the series. Pakistan also suffered a six-point deduction earlier this year during their series against Bangladesh.

However, given Australia’s recent focus on over-rate management, the chances of a significant penalty appear minimal. For now, Australia looks set to take on South Africa at Lord’s, aiming to claim their first WTC title.