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BBL15 SWOT analysis: Can Mohammad Rizwan's Melbourne Renegades break a 7-year title wait?

Kaushik Kashyap

BBL15 SWOT analysis (Source: @RenegadesBBL/X)BBL15 SWOT analysis (Source: @RenegadesBBL/X)

Melbourne Renegades is set to start their 2025-26 BBL campaign against Brisbane Heat on December 15 at Geelong. After finishing sixth last season, they have a strong squad capable of reaching the top four and ending their seven-year title drought.

Chasing their second championship, the Renegades rely on a mix of experienced players and young talents. Consistency, execution, and adaptability across key phases will be crucial if they want to finally break their seven-year trophy drought this season.

Melbourne Renegades squad for BBL 2025-26

Will Sutherland, Jason Behrendorff, Josh Brown, Harry Dixon, Brendan Doggett, Jake Fraser-McGurk, Caleb Jewell, Hassan Khan, Nathan Lyon, Fergus O'Neill, Ollie Peake, Muhammad Rizwan, Tom Rogers, Will Salzmann (injured), Gurinder Sandhu, Tim Seifert, Callum Stow, and Adam Zampa.

Strengths of Melbourne Renegades in BBL 2025-26

1. Dominant 1–15 overs bowling attack

This squad boasts a versatile, well-rounded bowling unit capable of adapting to any conditions. The addition of Jason Behrendorff, the league’s leading wicket-taker across the last two seasons, significantly increases their value and experience.

Powerplay bowling

  • The Renegades were the best bowling side inside the PP last season - 21 wickets at 7 RPO
  • Jason Behrendorff: 16 PP wickets at a 6.62 economy across the last two BBL editions.
  • Tom Rogers: Renegades’ best new-ball pacer with 12 PP wickets in the past two seasons.
  • Fergus O'Neill: Reliable early-overs option, collecting 8 PP wickets at an impressive 6.63 RPO in the same period.

Middle-overs control

  • Renegades were one of the best bowling sides last season in overs 7-16, taking 32 wickets at 8.03 RPO.
  • Adam Zampa as the premier leggie, terrific option in this phase with consistent middle-overs wickets.
  • Will Sutherland leads the wicket-taking threat with smart variations.
  • Callum Stow as backup adds attacking variety as a left-arm wrist-spin option.

2. Explosive top-four batting potential

The Renegades’ batting top-4 looks dynamic this season with the arrival of Mohammad Rizwan, bringing experience and stability at the top. Combined with aggressive stroke-makers, this unit can dominate thoroughly.

  • Mohammad Rizwan is averaging 54 this year with nearly 600 T20 runs, anchoring the innings.
  • Tim Seifert is one of the best T20 batters this year, striking at almost 160 in the powerplay for both country and franchises.
  • Jake Fraser-McGurk & Josh Brown provides explosive power-hitting early to set the tone.
  • Caleb Jewell's addition from the Hurricanes adds solidity and consistency at the top.

Weaknesses of Melbourne Renegades in BBL 2025-26

1. Middle-order vulnerability

The Renegades’ middle order lacks experience, relying on developing players, which went on to expose them as one of the worst batting sides in the death overs (17–20) last season.

  • Team strike-rate in slog overs last season 138.97, below the competitive benchmark.
  • Will Sutherland is only potent middle-order batter, who struck at 143.14 in middle-overs last season but it went down to 110 in death overs.
  • Heavy Tim Seifert dependency for finishing, restricts his aggressive play in middle overs.
  • Inexperience of players like Harry Dixon and Ollie Peake creates vulnerability if early wickets fall.

2. Heavy dependence on Tom Rogers in death overs

Melbourne Renegades’ death overs are highly dependent on Tom Rogers. Others like Behrendorff and Sutherland have struggled while Zampa manages middle overs, leaving a clear weakness in the final overs.

  • Team took just 12 wickets in death overs last season, lowest among all teams.
  • Behrendorff will manage the new ball duties effectively, death overs not his forte
  • High dependence on Tom Rogers for death overs who gave 8.36 RPO in that phase last season
  • Rogers had to carry a heavy death-over workload alongside Zampa, conceding around 8.6 RPO last season together.
  • Behrendorff and Sutherland will need to step in, but both struggled in death last season (10.36 & 13.33 RPO respectively).
  • Kane Richardson’s departure adds to the concern.

Opportunities

1. Behrendorff seeks fresh heights with new team

Jason Behrendorff, played important role in four of the Perth Scorchers’ five title wins and one of the league’s best bowlers with 140 wickets at 19.31, has a golden opportunity to elevate his new team to new heights this BBL 2025-26.

2. Peake and Dixon: Key to middle-order revival

Ollie Peake and Harry Dixon have the chance to emerge as key young talents, crucial in turning around the Renegades’ middle order. Their role will be vital, as opponents can see this area as a clear team weakness.

Threats

Top stars’ past records and recent form

High expectations from top-four stars, including Mohammad Rizwan, pose a significant threat to the Renegades. Notably, Rizwan’s past T20I record in Australia has not been strong, and Jake Fraser-McGurk has struggled in T20s this year.

  • Mohammad Rizwan in Australia T20Is: 12 innings, 19.6 average, 99.15 strike rate.
  • Jake Fraser-McGurk in T20s this year: 35 innings, 20.2 average.
  • If their poor form continues, Renegades’ top order could struggle badly, putting the team in serious trouble.

Melbourne Renegades probable XI for BBL 2025-26

Josh Brown, Mohammad Rizwan (wk), Jake Fraser-McGurk, Tim Seifert, Ollie Peake, Hassan Khan, Will Sutherland (c), Tom Rogers, Adam Zampa, Jason Behrendorff and Fergus O’Neill.

Expected finish: Should qualify for the playoffs.