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What Are New Zealand National Cricket Team's WTC 2025 Final Qualification Scenario?

New Zealand are currently playing first Test against England [Source: @TheCricketerMag/X.com]New Zealand are currently playing first Test against England [Source: @TheCricketerMag/X.com]

As the World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 cycle heats up, New Zealand find themselves in an intriguing race for the final spot in the prestigious event. Currently in the middle of a three match Test series against England at the Hagley Oval in Christchurch, the Black Caps are looking to keep their qualification hopes alive. But with only three Test matches remaining, can they secure a spot in the WTC 2025 Final?

New Zealand’s Current Position in WTC 2023-25

Black Caps, the inaugural World Test Championship winners, have had a rollercoaster journey so far in this cycle. They’ve won six and lost five games, with three remaining fixtures to play. A recent blow came in the form of a defeat in the second Test against Sri Lanka; however, they bounced back with a 3-0 series win over India in a 3-match series on their home turf.

Despite these major setbacks, New Zealand have chances to qualify for the final, but their path is a bit tricky. With a maximum achievable percentage (PCT) of 64.3%, their fate depends not only on their own performance but also on the results of other teams like South Africa, Sri Lanka, India, and Australia.

What Does New Zealand Need to Do?

With only three Tests remaining in their schedule, New Zealand has no room for error. Their only chance to qualify for the WTC Final is to win all the remaining matches against England. This would push their PCT to 64%, which is important for keeping their hopes alive.

How Can NZ Qualify For WTC?

A clean sweep against England is the only way New Zealand can ensure their spot in the final. However, it’s not just about winning; other results will also play a significant role in determining their fate. It’s worth noting that New Zealand has a lot of work to do in order to qualify, as their qualification doesn’t depend solely on their own results. The performance of teams like South Africa, Sri Lanka, India, and Australia will heavily influence whether the Black Caps make it to the WTC 2025 Final.

  • South Africa vs Sri Lanka Series: If this series ends in a 1-1 draw, it would prevent either team from surpassing New Zealand’s PCT, which works in the Black Caps’ favor.
  • India and Australia: If New Zealand can keep their PCT at 64%, only one of India or Australia might pass them. This opens up a potential path to qualification, but they will need to rely on the results of these two teams.

If New Zealand fails to win all three of their matches against England, their PCT could drop below 60%, putting them in a vulnerable position. In such a scenario, they would need multiple results to go their way in order to stay in the hunt for the WTC Final spot.