Which Team Can Win Cricket World Cup 2023?

image-lnbb16xyJonny Bairstow with the World Cup trophy in 2019 (Source: X)

The World Cup 2023 is upon us. We are just days away from the beginning of the mega event that gets on the way with the high-voltage clash between England and New Zealand. While the fever of the action will take the cricketing world, it will be when the fans will bring out the best of their cricketing knowledge and give their predictions regarding the result of the tournament.

We at OneCricket take an analytical approach in this article and try to predict the most probable champions of the tournament. 

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Setting the parameters

Well, to address our problem statement, we must set some parameters. For a team to win a mega event like the World Cup, a team must give a complete performance. The champion will have to deliver with both the bat and the ball and under crunch situations, and only then they could lay their hands on the coveted trophy. 

So, to delve deeper into our question, we will analyse the batting and bowling performance of the participating teams in the last twelve months. Both performances will be divided as per the efficiency in each phase of play of a One-Day match. In the final stage of our analysis, we will look at the teams' efficiency in each phase and try to predict the top four teams, the runners-up and the champions for World Cup 2023.


Batting Analysis

We all have a general idea of what could be the general playing XI of each team during the tournament. Our analysis will be primarily based on this. The batting analysis will be divided into three main factors - 

  1. Powerplay Efficiency
  2. Middle-Overs Efficiency
  3. Death-Overs Efficiency

Powerplay Efficiency

In order to calculate the powerplay efficiency of each of the teams, we will be taking into account the performance (Runs Per Innings and Strike Rate) in the powerplay of the top four (1-4 in batting order) of all the teams. Well, calculating the efficiency of the said batters, we get the following graph.


image-ln8ylknw(Source: OneCricket)

Conclusion

As far as batting efficiency in powerplay is concerned, India is the best team. If we talk about the top four spots, South Africa is ranked second followed by Australia and Sri Lanka. 


Middle-Overs Efficiency

To calculate the middle-overs batting efficiency of the teams we will be considering the average and strike rate of the middle-order batters (3-6 in the batting line-up) in the last 12 month during the 11-40 overs phase of a match.


image-ln9cq5jz(Source: OneCricket)

Conclusion

The top four teams in terms of middle-over batting efficiency are - South Africa, England, India and Pakistan.


Death Over Efficiency

In case of death over batting efficiency, we have taken into consideration the Strike Rate and Runs Per Innings of lower middle-order batters (6-8 in batting order) during the 41-50 over phase of an ODI match. 

image-lnaq9vk2(Source: OneCricket)

Conclusion

If we look at the death over batting frequency, the chart is topped by South Africa, followed by England at the second spot. But there is a surprise entry in the top three, i.e., Netherlands and India is quite surprisingly in the bottom three. So, the batting performance of India in the death overs might be a problem during the World Cup 2023.


Overall Batting Efficiency

Let us look at the cumulative batting efficiency of all the teams. 

image-lnarn2m2(Source: OneCricket)

Conclusion

The top four teams in terms of cumulative batting efficiency in the last 12 months or if we may term the top four batting line-ups for World Cup 2023 are - 

  1.  South Africa
  2. England
  3. India
  4. Australia

Bowling Analysis

To analyse the bowling department, we will take into consideration of the prime bowlers of each team and analyse their performance in different phases of the game. 


Powerplay Bowling Efficiency

In order to analyse the power play bowling efficiency of the teams, we will look at the bowlers for each team who have bowled between overs 1-10 and look at their strike rate and average. Now, we must keep in mind that in case of bowling efficiency, the lower the value the better.

image-lnarjsrz(Source: OneCricket)

Conclusion

So if we look at the the top three teams in terms of bowling efficiency in the powerplay, we get - Australia, Netherlands and India. Well, once again Netherlands have surprised us, they are really making their case to be the dark horses in the tournament. 



Middle-Overs Bowling Efficiency

In order to calculate the middle-over bowling efficiency of the teams we will take a look at the performances of the bowlers who bowl in the middle-overs (overs 11-40) for the teams. 

image-lnascvfc(Source: OneCricket)

Conclusion

As far as bowling efficiency in the middle-overs is concerned, the top three teams are- India, Australia and Pakistan. Surprisingly, New Zealand is at the bottom of the table, so one more top contender having a major problem. 


Death Overs Bowling Efficiency

For death over bowling efficiency we look into the bowling performance of death over bowlers in the last 12 months during the 41-50 overs phase of an ODI match.

image-lnat0x3z(Source: OneCricket)

Conclusion

So if we take the death-over bowling efficiency into consideration, then the top three teams are - Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Netherlands, and New Zealand. England and India have a problem in this case and they need to work on it during the tournament.


Overall Bowling Efficiency

If we take a look at the overall bowling efficiency we get:

image-lnat6ktc(Source: OneCricket)

Conclusion

So looking at the overall bowling efficiency, the top three most efficient bowling attacks ahead of the World Cup 2023 are:

  1.  India
  2. Australia
  3. Netherlands

WHO WILL WIN WORLD CUP 2023?

Performance Ratio: In order to get a final answer to our question, we have used the metric - performance ratio. In this case, we have divided the Batting Efficiency value by Bowling Efficiency value to reach the performance ration. And, here is our final result.

image-lnbar3do(Source: OneCricket)


Conclusion

As per our analysis, keeping the performances of the teams in the last 12 months in mind:

Probable Top Four: India, Australia, South Africa, and England

Probable Finalists: India and Australia

The team that can win the World Cup 2023 (Highest Probability): India

In the end, it is a disclaimer that numbers are not all in cricket. It will be temperament, and how the teams handle pressure that will determine who wins the coveted trophy. Here is hoping that may the best team win.