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Explained: How India Can Still Crash Out Of Champions Trophy 2025 Despite Consecutive Wins

Rajgeeta Yadav

India's chances of not qualify for the Semi-finals [Source: AP]India's chances of not qualify for the Semi-finals [Source: AP]

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Will India make it to the semi-finals? On paper, it looks like Team India is on track for a smooth qualification. They’ve been in excellent form, dominating their opponents with solid performances. 

After a convincing 6-wicket win against Bangladesh in their opening match-thanks to standout performances from Mohammed Shami and Shubman Gill-India followed it up with another brilliant 6-wicket victory over Pakistan on February 23, 2025, in Dubai. Virat Kohli led the way with a sensational century, bringing India closer to sealing a semi-final spot.

At this point, India seems to have one foot in the knockout stage. However, there’s still a slim chance they could miss out.

Where India Currently Stand In Points Table?

India currently sit at the top of Group A with a net run rate (NRR) of +0.647. Here’s how the group looks right now:

  • India: +0.647 (Top of the table)
  • New Zealand: +1.200
  • Bangladesh: -0.408
  • Pakistan: -1.087 (Bottom of the table and almost out of the race)

India have just one match left, but whether they qualify also depends on how the other teams perform.

What Could Stop India from Reaching Champions Trophy Semi-Finals?

For India to miss out on a semi-final spot, three unlikely things need to happen:

  • On February 27, Bangladesh must defeat New Zealand convincingly in Rawalpindi. Bangladesh held India off until the 47th over in their match, meaning their NRR of -0.408 isn’t too bad and could improve with a commanding win.
  • Bangladesh would then need to beat Pakistan by a big margin in their last match of the group stage. Given that Pakistan has already lost two matches and has an NRR of -1.087, they are nearly out of the semi-final race.
  • India would have to lose badly to New Zealand in their final group-stage match on March 2. Right now, Kiwis have a higher NRR (+1.200), so a heavy loss could drag India’s NRR down and push New Zealand ahead.

It is important to note that these scenarios are technically possible, they're highly unlikely. Looking at India's current form, along with their NRR advantage, makes their pat to the semi-finals almost certain.