Data Reveals India's 60% Win Chance As England Face Epic 350-Run Headingley Chase

Probuddha Bhattacharjee

Indian Team, Ben Duckett And Zak Crawley [Source: AP Photos]Indian Team, Ben Duckett And Zak Crawley [Source: AP Photos]

England and India have battled hard in the first Test at Headingley. The competition has boiled down to the stage, where the home team needs 350 runs on the final day of the game. 

Standing at this match-defining moment, a typical cricket fan will have the question - Who will go on to win this game? Here is an attempt at a predictive analysis to determine the possible outcome of the match and the chances of the two teams. 

The Numbers That Matter

Current Position: England need 350 runs in 90 overs (considering the full quota of overs for a day is played)

Historical Context: Only two times 350-plus targets have been successfully chased at Headingley in 144 years

Venue's Highest Chases
Total
Year
Australia vs England404/31948
England vs Australia359/92019

Bazball's Track Record

Since the Stokes-McCullum partnership began, England have chased down the following targets in the fourth innings:

  • 378 vs India (Edgbaston 2022) - Record chase at 4.9 runs per over
  • 296 vs New Zealand (Headingley 2022) - Completed in 54.2 overs

The Bumrah Factor

The biggest challenge for the home team and the biggest trump card for India will be the man named Jasprit Bumrah. The ace pacer has dominated in the first innings, where he picked up 5/83. 

The fact that one of the key batters in the English line-up, Joe Root, has been dismissed 10 times by the bowler adds to the concerns of the home team. Also, Bumrah enjoys bowling in these conditions (indicated by his achievement of being the leading Asian wicket-taker in SENA countries). 

Pitch Analysis For Day 5

The pitch conditions of Day 5 will definitely favour the Indian team. Post day four, KL Rahul assessed that the wicket would not be easy and it is like a subcontinent Day 5 track indicates that Jadeja would have the rough to exploit. This indicates that there will be assistance for the spinners. In the last six matches at this venue, the team batting first has won, suggesting that the conditions typically worsen for bowling.

Probability Breakdown

  • India Win: 60%
  • England Win: 35%
  • Draw: 5%

The required rate is very much achievable, especially with England's 'Bazball' philosophy. The key will be how Shubman Gill manages his resources and utilises his primary weapon, Jasprit Bumrah. For England, the batting of Ben Duckett, Joe Root, Ben Stokes and Harry Brook would be vital. 

Conclusion

History favours India, but England's recent approach to Test batting tilts it somewhat in their favour. The stage is set for a classic fourth innings chase, where the nerves of both teams will be tested.