Rain Interruption In KKR vs PBKS: Statistical Analysis Of Points Impact

Probuddha Bhattacharjee

Shreyas Iyer, Sunil Narine and Ajinky Rahane [Source: IPL 2025]Shreyas Iyer, Sunil Narine and Ajinky Rahane [Source: IPL 2025]

The rain-affected IPL 2025 match between Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and Punjab Kings (PBKS) at Eden Gardens ended with no result, but statistical analysis reveals that KKR significantly benefited from the washout while PBKS lost crucial championship points.

Match Scenario at Interruption

PBKS posted an imposing 201/4 in their 20 overs, with Prabhsimran Singh and Priyansh Arya forming a 120-run partnership. KKR's chase had barely begun at 7/0 after 1 over when rain forced abandonment, with both teams receiving one point each.

Statistical Win Probability Analysis

Our Monte Carlo simulation of 10,000 potential match outcomes, factoring the required run rate of 10.32, historical chase success rates, and current team form, produced a clear picture:

Team
Win Probability
Expected Points
Actual Points
Points Impact
PBKS92.22%2
1-1
KKR7.78%0
11

KKR gained 1 point above their statistical expectation, while PBKS lost the same amount.

Tournament Standings Impact

The rain interruption created a significant swing in the championship table:

Scenario
PBKS Points
KKR Points
Points Gap
Before Match1064
After No Result1174
If PBKS Won (92.22% probability)1266

This represents a critical shift in the playoff race. With a win, PBKS would have joined the top three teams on 12 points, creating separation from the chasing pack. Instead, they remain at 11 points, still within reach of teams below them.

How the points table has been impacted by the no result [Source: OneCricket]How the points table has been impacted by the no result [Source: OneCricket]

Key Factors Supporting This Analysis

How the match would have progressed in the second innings [Source: OneCricket[How the match would have progressed in the second innings [Source: OneCricket[

  • Chase Difficulty: No team in IPL 2025 had successfully chased 200+ targets in 15 such instances.
  • KKR Batting Form: KKR had not successfully chased any 180+ target in the tournament, reflecting their batting struggles.
  • Team Momentum: PBKS (5 wins from 9 matches) were in better form than KKR (3 wins from 9 matches).

Conclusion

Through robust statistical analysis, it's clear that KKR gained a significant advantage from the rain interruption, receiving a valuable championship point they were unlikely to earn through victory. PBKS, meanwhile, lost the opportunity to strengthen their position in the top four.

This single point could prove decisive in the final playoff standings, demonstrating how weather interruptions can have substantial strategic implications beyond the immediate match result.