Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings: Which Is The Best Ever IPL Franchise?

Probuddha Bhattacharjee

MS Dhoni and Rohit Sharma [Source: @pratyush_no7/x.com]MS Dhoni and Rohit Sharma [Source: @pratyush_no7/x.com]

The Ultimate Statistical Showdown

After 18 seasons of IPL cricket, two franchises stand above all others. Mumbai Indians and Chennai Super Kings both boast five IPL titles each, but their paths to greatness couldn't be more different. So which of these two franchises deserves the crows as the IPL's greatest?

The Championship Numbers

Mumbai Indians

  • 5 titles in 6 finals = 83.3% success rate
  • Finals appearances: 6 out of 18 seasons = 33.3% finals rate
  • Playoff qualification: 10 out of 18 seasons = 55.6% playoff rate
  • Championship probability: 27.78% per season

Chennai Super Kings

  • 5 titles in 10 finals = 50% success rate
  • Finals appearances: 10 out of 18 seasons = 55.6% finals rate
  • Playoff qualification: 12 out of 18 seasons = 66.7% playoff rate
  • Championship probability: 27.78% per season

Head-to-Head Numbers Check

In 39 IPL encounters, Mumbai Indians lead 21-18. More telling is their 3-1 record in finals against CSK:

  • 2010: CSK won by 22 runs
  • 2013: MI won by 23 runs
  • 2015: MI won by 41 runs
  • 2019: MI won by 1 run

However, Chennai Super Kings have 11 higher finishes compared to Mumbai Indians' 5 higher finishes as of 2025.

The Consistency vs Clutch Debate

Mumbai Indians' Case: They have played 20 playoff matches, winning 13 of them. MI Have reached the final six times and won the trophy five times, which is the most by any team. Their win rate in the playoffs is 65% showing how strong they are in big matches. The Mumbai Indians have qualified for the playoffs a total of 10 times. Their playoff qualification rate is 55.6% (10/18 seasons).

Chennai Super Kings' Case: CSK have appeared in 10 finals and qualified for the playoff stages 12 times, the most amongst the IPL teams. The Chennai Super Kings have played 26 playoff matches, winning 17 and losing nine. Their playoff qualification rate is 66.7% (12/18 seasons), and their finals rate is 55.6% (10/18 seasons).

The Leadership Factor

Both teams benefited from exceptional leadership. Rohit Sharma led MI to all of their five titles, making him the joint-most successful captain alongside MS Dhoni. Meanwhile, Dhoni's instincts, coupled with his tactical nous, have been central to Super Kings' success over the years.

Mathematical Verdict: Mumbai Indians

Using probability mathematics with clear tournament performance metrics:

Primary Championship Probability (18 seasons each):

  • MI: 5 titles ÷ 18 seasons = 27.78%
  • CSK: 5 titles ÷ 18 seasons = 27.78%

Tie-Breaking Metric - Tournament Performance Breakdown:

  • Playoff Qualification Probability: CSK (66.7%) vs MI (55.6%)
  • Finals Reach Probability: CSK (55.6%) vs MI (33.3%)
  • Finals Success Rate: MI (83.3%) vs CSK (50%)
  • Championship Probability: Both (27.78%)

Head-to-Head Probability:

  • MI wins: 21/39 = 53.8%
  • CSK wins: 18/39 = 46.2%

Overall Tournament Performance Index:

Tournament Performance = (Playoff Rate × 0.15) + (Finals Rate × 0.25) + (Finals Success Rate × 0.25) + (Championship Rate × 0.35)

  • CSK: (66.7% × 0.15) + (55.6% × 0.25) + (50% × 0.25) + (27.78% × 0.35) = 42.74
  • MI: (55.6% × 0.15) + (33.3% × 0.25) + (83.3% × 0.25) + (27.78% × 0.35) = 47.06

*Note: CSK have played 16 seasons in reality. However, suspension due to administration level failure cannot act as an advantage and hence, full 18 seasons have been counted for them.

Definitive Mathematical Conclusion:

While both teams have identical championship probability (27.78%), when accounting for Finals Success Rate, Mumbai Indians has a superior Overall Tournament Performance Index of 47.06 compared to CSK's 42.74 - a 4.32 percentage point advantage.

MI's superior finals conversion rate (83.3% vs 50%) proves decisive in the comprehensive analysis.

Mathematical Winner: Mumbai Indians - Same championship rate + 4.32% better overall tournament performance including finals success.