Has Kagiso Rabada Eclipsed SA Greats? Statistical Analysis Gives The Answer

Probuddha Bhattacharjee

Dale Steyn and Kagiso Rabada [Source: @Cricketracker/x.com, AP Photos]Dale Steyn and Kagiso Rabada [Source: @Cricketracker/x.com, AP Photos]

As Kagiso Rabada steamed in at Lord's, dismantling Australia's top order with figures of 5/52, he's wrote the latest chapter in his case as South Africa's greatest Test bowler. His twin strike that removed Usman Khawaja for a duck and Cameron Green for 4 in the same over epitomizes his skill set and clinical efficiency. 

Australia were bundled out for 212 courtesy of the Protea pacers, with Rabada leading from the front. At 29 with 332 Test wickets, he's already rewritten every speed record set by Dale Steyn, Shaun Pollock or Allan Donald.

Numbers That Favour Rabada

Bowler
Tests
Wickets
Average
Strike Rate
Wickets/Test
Kagiso Rabada7033221.8239.134.74
Dale Steyn9343922.9542.34.72
Shaun Pollock10842123.1157.843.9
Allan Donald7233022.2547.024.58

Kagiso Rabada concedes about 22 runs to take a wicket in Test cricket. This puts him ahead of the prevous South African greats. Allan Donald finished his career pretty close to Rabada's numbers but this where ball needed for a wicket by the bowlers comes to play.

Kagiso takes about 39 deliveries or 6.3 overs (approx) to pick up a wicket. In this case he is way ahead of the others in the list. The closes to KG in this cas is Dale Steyn who used to take just over seven overs for his one wicket in Test cricket.

Rabada Leads In Match Definig Performance Frequency

Frequency of ten-wicket in match hauls of top South African bowlers - 

  • Rabada: 4 in 70 Tests (one every 17.5 matches)
  • Steyn: 5 in 93 Tests (one every 18.6 matches)
  • Donald: 3 in 72 Tests (one every 24 matches)
  • Pollock: 1 in 108 Tests (one every 108 matches)

The Mathematical Dominance In Favour Of Rabada

The numbers provide irrefutable proof. Rabada needs 7.75 fewer balls per wicket than Pollock, 7.89 fewer than Donald, and 3.25 fewer than Steyn. Over a career, this translates to hundreds more wickets at the same workload.

His wickets-per-Test ratio of 4.74 means he'd reach 400 Test wickets in just 84 matches. Steyn needed 93 Tests for 439 wickets. Pollock required 108 Tests for 421. Donald managed 330 in 72 Tests.

At Rabada's current rate, he'll well surpass Steyn's 439 wickets in 93 Tests - the exact number Steyn played. Also, Rabada will do it with a superior average and strike rate throughout.