Race to the Playoffs | How teams stack up in the fatal four-way clash between KKR, PBKS, RR and MI

The Indian Premier League is nearing its business end now and with only 10 matches remaining before the champion of the 2021 season is crowned on October 15. But the road to the finale is tough and goes through the Playoffs, reaching where itself is full of excitement. 

Three teams in Chennai Super Kings, Delhi Capitals and Royal Challengers Bangalore have already made it to the Playoffs and there is only one spot left, for which four teams are fighting. 

The battle for the Playoffs has thus become a fatal four-way in the senes that any team can cut the other and take the final spot. Thus, below is all the probabilities of the four teams making it to the Playoffs

Kolkata Knight Riders' chances

For KKR, it is the simplest way up as they have the best net run rate among the four teams competing for the Playoffs. Sitting at the fourth position currently with 12 points from 13 games, the men in purple would face Rajasthan Royals in their final league stage fixture. If they win it, they simply go through because Mumbai Indians, the only other team that can get to 14 points along with KKR, has a dismal run rate that cannot be covered up. 

But what if KKR lose their last game?

In that case, a lot of permutations and combinations come into play for KKR to qualify. If KKR lose the game with Rajasthan having won its previous match, then the race is over and Rajasthan go through. However, if Rajasthan lose against Mumbai Indians and win against KKR, that would put the Knight Riders on level terms with the Royals. 

Considering that Punjab Kings win their last game against Chennai Super Kings and Sunrisers Hyderabad can beat Mumbai in their final game, then all the four teams would be at 12 points and then the net run rate would be under consideration, in which case KKR would have the upper hand courtesy of their superior run rate until and unless they don’t get all out within 10 overs and Royals chase down the total within five overs. 

But if any of the above conditions are not fulfilled, then KKR would have to give up on their quest for a magical comeback season. 

Rajasthan Royals' chances

The next team with great qualification chances is Rajasthan Royals. After winning a phenomenal game against table-toppers Chennai Super Kings in their last game, the team from the pink city, which looked down and out from the Playoffs race, suddenly rose from the ashes. Now their qualification road is very simple as they meet their two toughest competitors in their two upcoming matches. 

If they beat Mumbai Indians, whom they meet in their next match on October 5th, they will have the best shot at the playoffs when they face Knight Riders on October 7th. A win in both the games will see them through pretty easily. 

What if RR lose against Mumbai and win against KKR?

In that case, the qualification of Rajasthan will depend on two factors, first Mumbai must lose to Sunrisers Hyderabad and then second will be its ability to beat Knight Riders in a fashion that their net run rate soar above their opponents, which looks a very difficult probability given the current state of NRR. 

Mumbai Indians' chances

While KKR and Rajasthan have their qualification intact in their own hands, Mumbai somehow is now dependent on not only winning its own two games but on Rajasthan Royals to beat Kolkata in their last game. 

The equation has come down to such a cliff because of their dismal net run rate of (-0.453), which cannot get past KKR’s net run rate of (+0.294) even when a miracle takes place. Thus for Mumbai to qualify, it must first win its two games and  KKR must lose its last game. 

There is another probability through which Mumbai can go through and it is if the match between KKR and RR somehow gets cancelled or washed off. But expecting a rain washout in UAE is nothing short of expecting a miracle. 

Punjab Kings' chances

Well, there is hardly any chance for Punjab Kings of qualification as per se, but mathematically they are still into it. With their net run rate of (-0.241), they are the closest to KKR’s humungous net run rate. 

If they win handsomely against Chennai super Kings and KKR lose very badly against RR, with the fact that Mumbai lose against SRH and win against Rajasthan, but not with a huge margin, then Punjab has a slight mathematical chance of making it to the Playoffs. But actually, it is next to impossible. 

Thus, starting from Tuesday, it is going to be an exhilarating week of drama and thrilling encounters in the VIVO IPL 2021.